Thoughts on 2012 – Part 2 – What may be

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Welcome to my second set of thoughts on 2012. Make sure to check out Part 1, More of the same.

Here I look at the future of content consumption and its inevitable effect on content creation. I’ll also touch on how I think technology will impact the 2012 election season.

What may be (by which I mean predictions, [hopefully educated] guesses, and  lamp posts)

Future of  Content Consumption
Tablets. Smart TVs. Hulu. Netflix. Piracy. DVR. What do they have in common? Each is disruptive to the traditional model of most television content consumption (the big exception that comes to mind is live TV). It’s easy to argue that some of the items on that list are potentially a lot more disruptive than others.

Content providers (television networks) need to start to think about new ways to tell stories that transcend the medium of television. Note I used the word start (not master). 2012 will see experimentation. Lots of it. I say this not because I think it will happen, but because I genuinely feel it needs to.

Let’s start by looking at comic book universes. Take an iconic character like Superman. He simultaneously exists  in comics, movies, television, books, and even the DC Universe MMORPG. The creative teams of the different efforts rarely coordinate or overlap, if at all, yet somehow it works. Casual fans enjoy it. Hardcore deepdiving fans may get a bit annoyed by discrepancies in canon, but they can be satiated in other ways. While this has happened organically as classic properties have been adapted in new mediums, content providers will/should start finding ways to adopt this manner of storytelling to new tales from the onset of conception.

I see something similar to the example described above, but tweaked every so slightly for the digital audience. For example, the primary show is still aired on television. There are shorts available online and VOD that follow supporting and minor characters (expanding the universe). Characters could also live in the social networks, inhabiting Twitter accounts and Facebook timelines. They could even update their own Tumblrs. Shows could have their own companion apps that offer plot-relevant additional content for fans who watch the initial airing of a show. This would require resources beyond what is currently utilized for most shows, so advertising strategies would have to be adjusted accordingly. It can be done. I promise.

I predict that in 5 years, the way we consume ‘television’ will be fundamentally different. People will be able to process non-linear information from multiple mediums into a cohesive universe they can enter on-demand.The counterargument is that people want a lean-back experience where they don’t have to think very hard and simply be entertained.

While I don’t have statistical data to support this, my ethnographic research has yielded a view the proliferation of tablets and media-multi-tasking (watching tv while also using a mobile phone, tablet, laptop, magazine, etc) is changing the way we consume media. New patterns for consumption are already being formed.

The first stage of this evolution will see more content-hungry people (deep divers) consuming content from multiple sources and curating it together on their own. They will follow you down the rabbit hole. Eventually though, the masses will begin to consume in this multi-tasking fashion. The narrative will be inherently fragmented by virtue of the diversity of screens we’ll be faced with on a daily basis, but the masses won’t stand for it being fractured. No, the masses will require content providers to connect the dots for them as the lean-forward self-curation of today becomes the lean back passive consumption of tomorrow.

Does this sound  a bit like transmedia? Bravo has already started experimenting with this with Top Chef Last Chance Kitchen. Sure, but I think it goes beyond that.

Television creators, at heart, are short form storytellers (which is to say shorter than a motion picture) who have traditionally told their stories using the moving image. In the future, they’ll be pushed beyond their comfort zones, as they learn to create new universes built upon non-linear tales that span multiple mediums. Its time to start thinking outside of the box. Its time to create a new box, or 5. I think we’ll see the first steps toward this in 2012.

2012 Election
Its no secret that technology will play a large role in the 2012 election season. In fact, Google has launched a website dedicated exclusively to elections.This year will see a democratization of the social and mobile media, as candidates on all levels of government (local, state, national, etc) will use technology to rally voters but also as internal coordination tools that will enable them to run more efficient, and ultimately more effective campaigns.

Both the DNC and RNC should be releasing apps (if they haven’t already) that, at a minimum, allow constituents to locate their polling place (and provides map/directions) and provides the tools to help them register to vote. These aren’t creative ideas. They’re prerequisites. The campaigns focus on emerging technologies will have unique advantages over those who invest heavily in attack ads.  The possibilities for reinvigorating our disinterested electorate are intriguing.

I predict that the thread connecting political winners this November will have less to do with politics and policies than with savvy uses of technology.

Up Next: Hopes

Thoughts on 2012 – Part 3 – Hopes

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Welcome to the final installment of my thoughts on 2012. Make sure you check out More of the Same and What May Be. They aren’t required reading to understand anything I talk about here, but they are worth your time (obviously!).

Without further adieu, an optimistic title for thoughts that border on the side of pessimism.

Hopes (by which I mean hopes)

Step off your SOPA box

via daretoeatapeach

Let’s get serious. The current conversation surrounding SOPA is a joke. Partisan as can be, it’s no surprise that the loudest voices are also the most extreme. Jason Zengerle of New York Magazine articulates it nicely:

Really, SOPA is just an old-fashioned Washington battle between two entrenched corporate camps: the entertainment companies that don’t want their output ripped off, and the web companies that don’t want to be saddled with increased compliance costs.

I’ve been vocal about my yearning for a more nuanced, substantive debate, and I’m not alone. I recently came across some voices advocating for the same thing in form of PlagiarismToday and Patrick O’Keefe - definitely worth reading if you’re interested in breaking through the hype and propaganda.

My prediction? Both Google and their tech industry pals will continue throwing money towards opposing SOPA. The entertainment industry will continue to support it. The technology industry will be hailed as saviors of free speech and other American values. The entertainment industry will be vilified as an out-of-touch, dying monopoly with a death grip on a flawed business strategy. Neither view is really accurate. Some version of the legislation will pass – it will either be pared down and too weak to stop any form of piracy or so vaguely defined (as it is now) that it will open the door for abuse.

My hope? Would it be too much to ask for both sides to stifle the rhetoric and have a meaningful conversation between stakeholders on how to craft workable legislation? Of course it would. Compromise would require giving ground (which translates to leaving money on the table). I’m not sure I see it happening. But that’s why this section is titled “hopes,” which tend to be in high supply this time of year.

Final Thoughts

So there you have it. Its a new year and hope springs eternal. Perhaps our worldwide culture of internet connected devices, social networks, and communications technology will usher in a new age of global consciousness. 2012 just might turn out to be the convergence that serves as a juncture between one world age and the next.

Close your eyes. Breath. Imagine what could be.

Thoughts on 2012 – Part 1 – More of the same

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A new year is here. With it comes new hopes, fears, and opportunities. What should we expect in the world of media, culture and communications? I’ve outlined some of the broader themes I see playing out this year.

I’ll start the first of three posts with what I’ve dubbed more of the same.

More of the same (by which I mean continuation of themes we saw in 2011)

The [continued] decline of physical media
Slow and steady, physical media is nearing its end. More specifically, it will reach a point where it’s manufacture and sale is no longer of significant importance to those who’s income is derived from the distribution and sale of  entertainment media.

The convergence of the cloud and digital media ecosystems will see content creators and distributors focusing more on digital versions of content than physical. I’m not expecting this to happen all at once, but make so mistake that the phasing out of physical media has begun. At this year’s CES, I expect the focus on media players will be on how they can connect to the cloud and play/stream, rather than on their capabilities to play physical media (eg  blu-ray).

The one exception to this will be books. While sales will almost certainly be affected by the ever-growing popularity of ebooks, books are one form of physical media that will last. They have a substantially longer half-life than the more recent creations (CDs, DVDs). While they may be on the decline, they will not be meeting their end anytime soon.

The [continued] proliferation of niche self expression and sharing
Pinterest, Turntable FM, and Instagram may seem dispirit in nature, but they share a common spirit. These platforms allow users to engage with one another in a niche way. Be it by sharing music or inspiration, they offer a respite from the all-consuming life-streaming of Facebook. They give the power back to users to decide what is import as they tell their own stories. Turntable, for example, prides itself on enabling users to “listen to music selected by people, not algorithms.” Facebook may pride itself on it’s algorithms, but they cannot automate caring.

The focus on sharing a singular type of content is appealing to users in search of new avenues of self expression. Look for these platforms to continue to grow in both popularity and us and for new niche self expression services to debut in the coming months.

TurntableFM

The [continued] rise of the 2-screen experience
The term 2-screen experience will grow to be too broad for its own good. Before I address that, what exactly do we mean by a second screen experience? It helps by establishing that in this scenario, the first screen is the television. The second screen in question could be a tablet, laptop or even mobile phone. The experience on the second screen is meant to compliment what you’re watching on television. It can do this in multiple ways, such as a social media stream, live chat, or complementary content.

While in 2011, the ‘second screen market’ allowed for the creation of new viewing experiences and the formation of new companies to create said experiences, not enough work was done to codify what it all actually means. With such an expansive definition, its not easy to come to find agreement on what makes a good second screen experience.

I’ve heard the term second screen used interchangeably with social television and companion viewing experience. So what are we talking about? Is it a twitter hashtag stream, a “check-in” service like Miso, apps that utilize automated-content-recognition (ACR) to synchronize the user experience to what they are watching on TV, or some hybrid experience combining them all?

USA Anywhere iPhone App

2012 will be a year of segmentation as 2-screen experiences will fall into different categories that are already starting to be organically defined. The following categories are already starting to come into place; social exchange, additional static content, ACR, and hybrids combining the three. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Shannon McKenzie, a source of light in an otherwise dark cave. Her  exploration of the second screen space has greatly aided in my own understanding of, and pontification on, the subject.

Lost Remote has made a dozen predictions for the social TV space. While these are more observations than predictions, much of what they say seems reasonable. However, the article underscores the fact that terms like social TV are currently too broad and inclusive to be helpful for those looking to navigate the space. That’s problematic. Will that change in the coming months? Bet on it.

Up next: What may be

Looking back on 2011

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As the year wraps up, I think its worthwhile to take a look back.

I barely put out more than 20 long-form posts on this blog in 2011.  I found myself supplementing written self expression using other platforms and mediums including Tumblr, Twitter, Instagram, and more recently, Pinterest. I also took a new job, which has kept me incredibly busy.

My personal experience offers an interesting view into the cultural shift from long form expression to short form updates. Constant, micro updates  (EG 140 characters on Twitter, an image on Instagram) make it easy to create a personal narrative. The platform itself becomes your aggregator and de-facto storyteller. Instagram, and photo-sharing in general, reduce the need for lengthy explanations – who needs text when a picture is worth 1000 words?

Path and Facebook Timeline (is there really a difference?) are in fact built on the promise of crafting your life story for you. All you need to do is feed in some micro updates, images, and locations. The platform does the work. The platform makes the connections. This also means that the platform determines the significance of social objects (EG check-in, status update, photo, etc)

Algorithms replace/reinterpret/reduce the need for storytelling. 

This is the direction social media is heading. I do not deny it. It does, however, give me pause. Where does perspective and reflection fit in a world of micro thoughts, feelings and impulses? I’m not sure that it fits anywhere and there’s an inherent danger there. I’m as guilty as anyone. But I digress…

I’d like to take a moment to focus on mobile photo-sharing. I couldn’t get enough. Snapping shots with my iPhone and using 3-4 different apps to manipulate these photos became something of a compulsion. I currently have over 20 apps loaded onto my phone for photography/video taking/editing/sharing. The amateur is now that much closer to becoming a professional. Point, Shoot, Share was the big story for me in 2011.

Instagram in action

Mobile Device Behavior
It’s all about apps, man. This year I found myself constantly using Instagram, TiltShiftGen and LensLight to get my aforementioned photo fix. SocialCam and PhotoSynth also worked their way into my common rotation towards the end of the year.

Swackett proved to be an enjoyable, well designed, and incredibly useful way to check the weather. It combines the age-old question of, “What’s the weather going to be like?” with the obvious follow-up, “What should I wear?”

Swackett - a different kind of weather app

I can’t get over the beautiful redesign of Path. Unfortunately, I’m not spending as much time using it as I’d like to, even after giving it prime time real estate on my iPhone home screen. We’ll see if that changes in 2012. Path feels like a second chance for me to get Facebook right. By that I mean, its a personal social network where I can actually share personal things with actual friends. I plan to do this by limiting my ‘friends’ on Path to people I actually speak to, etc. (as opposed to the noisy mess Facebook has become) On that note, the new Facebook Timeline looks just like redesigned Path. Just sayin’. I also personally find Facebook Timeline to be much more enjoyable via mobile.

Path

I logged more hours playing Drop7 than all other apps combined, though Whale Trail was game of the year as far as I’m concerned. There’s nothing more fun than helping Willow collect floating blubbles to feed his rainbow coloured trail, dodging the angry Thunder Bros and avoiding the evil Baron Von Barry. Its simple, addictive, and most importantly fun.

Whale Trail Image

Whale Trail

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore was the story app of the year on iPad. I also found myself using ReadItLater (better than always having 30 tabs open at any given time) and DocsToGo for iPad productivity. The nostalgia of comics worked its way back into my life via comiXology, but I think there’s a lot more that can be done given that the iPad offers a brand new medium for sequential art storytelling.

Curiously, even though I’ve been following the emergence of two-screen/television companion experiences, I didn’t find myself compelled to use any of them on more than very infrequent basis. The draw for me just wasn’t there.

There were obviously a ton of other wonderful apps that came out this year. These are just the few that I found myself using most frequently.

I also got a Kindle Fire. Meh. I use it to read ebooks. Perhaps I’d have been better off with a simple Kindle ereader. I don’t really regret it given the price point, but I’m not quite sold just yet. However, I do find myself using it all the time.

Final Thoughts
This was quite a superficial assessment of the past 11.9 months. While I’m more interested in looking forward, the past provides valuable insights that shouldn’t be ignored. Overall, 2011 was an exciting year in culture, media, and technology. I’m ready to take thing to the next level.

Up next I’ll be sharing my predictions for 2012. Stay tuned.

Thoughts on SOPA – The Unpopular Middle Ground

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Disclaimer – I work for NBCUniversal. While I have a mind and opinions of my own, I realize that it is highly relevant to note my employer given the topic. As always, the views expressed on this site and in this post are solely my own, and do not necessarily reflect the thoughts and opinions of NBCUniversal (my employer).

What is SOPA? Check this article out. It does a fine job of synthesizing some of facts, though I’d reckon skews towards one side of the argument a bit much. Irrespective, I think its very important for the public to understand SOPA and make up their own minds about it. It is for that purpose that I want to speak a bit about the companies opposing SOPA.

The piece explains how things currently work in the world of harboring content posted with the authorization of the creator/copyright holder:

Currently, sites are protected by the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, which means that they are protected from prosecution as long as they take down the content that has infringed someone else’s copyright as soon as they find out. For example, let’s say you upload a video to YouTube of a Family Guy episode you recorded. The copyright does not belong to you, but instead to Fox. If Fox sees that you posted the show to YouTube, they can ask YouTube to take it down.  As long as YouTube quickly complies, there are no problems.

Using the Family Guy scenario as an example, YouTube really has no incentive to do anything more than take down videos that violate copyright on a one-off, per request basis as mandated by DMCA.

This puts the burden on copyright holders/content creators (in this case Fox) to scour YouTube’s platform for videos posted without their authorization, while Youtube continues to financially benefit (via advertising) from content who’s creation they have not supported in any meaningful/financial way.

I agree that SOPA, as currently written, will not be a workable solution. The vague nature in which it is written worries me. However, the extreme backlash to the bill that has drowned out any potentially nuanced perspectives and constructive dialogue. I have yet to see anyone who opposes SOPA suggest a middle ground. We have to ask ourselves, why?

Many of companies railing against it have a financial stake in the free distribution of other people’s intellectual property continuing unabated. Therefore, its hard to see them as the noble protectors of free speech. They say that SOPA will ‘break the internet’ but it’s also true that they stand to make billions of dollars from the internet staying the way it is.

In a recent interview with the LA Times, Robert Levin, author of Free Ride: How Digital Parasites Are Destroying The Culture Business And How The Culture Business Can Fight Back makes some points about Google that I strongly agree with:

Every few months Google will announce it’s improving its anti-piracy practices. I think it’s improving but it usually makes these announcements when it’s under pressure.

They have a lot of people whipped into frenzy about how SOPA is the end of free speech online. There are a lot of very smart people who make smart points about why bills are flawed or bad, but a lot of those people are funded by Google and that’s kind of bullshit. If we want to have a serious, smart debate, Google is not helping that debate. They are standing in the way of that debate.

Let’s not be too quick to tout these technology companies as saviors. We can’t forget that they represent a wealthy special interest.

I realize that’s not a popular position to take, but that doesn’t make it any less true.

High Level Thoughts on Gamification

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Gamification. What is it? What are we talking about? I guess we could say that gamification is the integration of game mechanics in non-game environments to increase audience engagement and loyalty.

I was meeting with a gamification vendor yesterday. The vendor took me aside and asked if he could be honest with me. Somewhat disconcerting, as I assumed that he generally was being honest with me the whole time, but I digress. He said, “We just use the term gamification to get in the door and speak to you. At heart we’re really a motivation and behavioral analytics company.”

I’m glad he said that, because he’s right. When we use the term gamification, we’re really taking about habitualzing behavior and applying basic human psychology to digital experiences. It is not about making games

Most people are more familiar with gamification than they initially realize. Frequent flier miles and credit card reward points both incorporate basic game mechanics. Is it starting to sync in a bit more now?

The Hype
Last week, Deloitte announced the research findings from its 3rd annual “Tech Trends 2012″ report, which identifies and predicts the top 10 emerging and disruptive technologies that are expected to play a crucial role in how businesses are anticipated to operate globally in 2012 and beyond. Gamification made the cut as a disruptive deployment. Obviously.

The first ever MBA course on gamification wrapped up a few weeks ago at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. I kid you not. You can take a look at the course site if you’re interested.

According to Gartner, gamification is about to reach the peak of its hype.

Such high profile institutions looking at gamification and considering its implications in business and beyond clearly demonstrates the potential disruptive shift caused by behavioral motivation.

What’s the point?

At its heart, most business is all about influencing behavior. If we can motivate people to perform the behaviors we deem as necessary to our success, than theoretically we should be successful, right?

“Gamificaiton should be about rewarding people for what they already want to do, not tricking them into doing something they don’t want to do.”
Andy Elwood said that about a month ago at the Futures of Entertainment 5 conference at MIT. I’m not sure if he had phrased it this way before, but this was a bit of a serendipitous moment. It dispels much of the ethical ambiguity surround the concept. I’ve referenced this definition multiple times since and each time it was met with earnest head nods of agreement. With this definition as a lamp post to guide us forward, I think we’ll be okay.

 

Final thoughts
Gamification as a term is hyped to the point that it disgusts me. Gamification as a concept is ripe to be explore, embraced, and executed. As I said before, its nothing more than human psychology. Its another tool in the tool box. It isn’t right for all interactions and experiences. Its easy to tell when it lacks authenticity. But when its organic and contextual it can go a great way towards helping to create engaging and rewarding experience.

Who watches the reaction video watchmen?

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Reaction videos. We’ve all seen them (and if you haven’t, see below). What does this sweeping, room-by-room anthropology of the American continent reveal, wonders Sam Anderson in insightfully curios piece examining our relationship with user generated digital media (viral videos, specifically).

Reaction videos are designed to capture, above all, surprise — that moment when the world breaks, when it violates or exceeds its basic duties and forces someone to undergo some kind of dramatic shift. This is another source of the genre’s appeal: in a culture defined by knowingness and ironic distance, genuine surprise is increasingly rare — a spiritual luxury that brings us close to something ancient. Watching a reaction video is a way of vicariously recapturing primary experience.

 

Anderson also ponders the authenticity of such moments. I leave it to you to draw your own conclusions, but it’s an interesting question.

What is the ability of media companies to create compelling content that draws us in and causes such emotional reactions? Did people react this way to the twists and turns of Lost? I thoroughly enjoyed the show, but I’m not sure any of my reactions to the various plot points were worth recording.

What can we learn from the reactions to properties like Twilight and Star Wars? A lot I’m sure. Perhaps its all about storytelling. More likely, its complicated.